Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict- History and a way forward

For the former soviet states Armenia and Azerbaijan, the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh province has been at the centre of the conflict for decades. Even though the province is internationally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan, the region has been the point of contention between the 2 countries ever since Armenia occupied the region decades ago. The province has been a contention from the time of Armenian genocide by the ottoman empire. The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan goes back generations deeply rooted in geography, ethnicity, religion and geopolitics. For Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of their heritage with historic ethnic Armenians occupying the region dotted with Armenian churches and infrastructure. The citadel of Shusha, which is important to both Armenians and Azeris, sits in the middle of Nagorno-Karabakh making things more complicated. When the Soviets captured the territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan in 1920s, Nagorno-Karabakh was made a semi-autonomous region within the republic of Azerbaijan which went against the majority ethnic Armenian population but there was no sign of major confrontations until the 1980s when the Glasnost was announced.

With a majority of the ethnic Armenian population, the Nagorno-Karabakh province voted a referendum to join Armenia in 1988, an unintended result of soviet era Glasnost policy and declaring independence in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union intensifying the fight between the countries escalating the fighting into a war. The 1994 ceasefire agreement mediated by Russia gave de-facto control of occupied territories in Azerbaijan including Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Following the 1994 ceasefire, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have violated the ceasefire agreement multiple times causing mass casualties of soldiers and civilians in the province. Efforts by the US, France and Russia (Minsk group) to establish peace in the regions were futile.

However, in 2020, the conflict grew into a full-scale war that lasted for 45 days ending with the surrender of Armenia and reclaiming of most of its lost territory by Azerbaijan. Following the victory from the conflict in 2020, Azerbaijan increased its military expenditure to $2.6 billion in 2022 compared to $754 million by Armenia. The Nagorno-Karabakh region is a geopolitical melting point with the involvement of Russia, Turkey, the US and Iran. Russia, as an ally of Armenia and having a good relationship with Azerbaijan, tries to establish peace in the region as a way of maintaining its waning influence in the region and even placing Russian peacekeeping troops.

For Turkiye, the Azeri link is ethnic and cultural since they are Turkic speaking population. President Erdogan openly has supported the Azerbaijan government in the conflict against Armenia as a liberation of occupied land and protecting their homeland. Turkey even supplies weapons including advanced military drones tipping the war on Azerbaijan’s side. The Turkic support to Azerbaijan may not be purely cultural since oil and Natural gas is the largest export of Azerbaijan and is the biggest supplier of gas to Turkiye. The revenue from oil and gas has been Azerbaijan increase its military expenditure. The support from Turkey has unilaterally favoured the Azeri victory over Armenia in 2020.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are seen as gateways to Europe. Any instability will further destabilise the region. Recently, the conflict flared up again with both sides blaming each other as the instigator. The conflict most probably flared up because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Russia is a major ally of Armenia allowing Azerbaijan to take advantage of the window of opportunity. Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has brokered yet another peace deal between the two countries. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken hosted the foreign ministers of the 2 countries on the sidelines of the UNGA to establish peace and prevent further flare-ups. The region has become so volatile that even the slightest of provocation can break out into a full-blown conflict. With Europe trying to reduce energy imports from Russia by importing from Azerbaijan, any instability in the region will be bad for business.

All diplomatic efforts by the international community including the UN have failed to reach a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The UNSC passed a number of resolutions to establish peace and stop the fighting but has been fruitless. The Minsk group headed by Russia, including the US and France, tried to negotiate a peace plan and came close to establishing peace in the region in 2007 but the plan fell apart as both countries tried to make the plan more favourable for themselves. There is also the matter of self-determination of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is understandable for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh who are majority Armenian to want to unite with Armenia. While it is also practically impossible to take out a chunk of territory from the middle of Azerbaijan. Thus, a stalemate between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region. It is important that both countries compromise for crucial peace in the south Caucasus.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)